Low interest rate gives a low interest rate on the banks and vice versa
As we reported last week, the bank left the key policy rate at 1%. A decision announced on Wednesday. Since it is this interest rate that the banks lend money to, it is indirectly this interest rate that determines what interest rate the banks offer to their customers.
In general, it can be said that a low interest rate gives a low interest rate on the banks and vice versa.
But that the policy rate remains unchanged does not mean that the banks’ lending rates are still at exactly the same levels. Even before the decision came from the bank that the interest rate would be at a standstill, several loan institutions had raised the interest rate on the mortgage. One example is Skandiabanken, which allowed the increase to apply from 3/7. This was an increase of 0.3 percentage points on the five-year interest rate.
What lies behind the banks’ rise in the long interest rate when the bank chooses not to raise?
How long interest rates in the rest of the world are moving depends largely on how investors believe that inflation will move. Thus, it is indirect companies that invest in international fixed income securities that affect the Swedish long-term interest rate.
Obviously, many investors believe in a coming rise in inflation and want a high interest rate to offset this.
Short interest rates are also affected from the outside
The final decision on how many percentage points the policy rate should be on is the Swedish governors. But the decision is made on the basis of external factors, which means that this interest rate is also likely to go up. Many analysts believe this will happen in the middle of next year.
What they base this on is, among other things, a recovery in the economy, more investment and increased exports. Increased exports can only happen if the economy in other countries recovers and they in turn start investing more. This is what both analysts and investors have foreseen and if they are right it would lead to higher inflation in Sweden. In order to counteract inflation, the bank is thus forced to raise interest rates.